Selective harvesting under a changing climate

Warming oceans threaten fishery productivity by altering growth, reproduction, and survival of temperature-sensitive species. While long-term impacts are well documented, the short-term effects of warming event characteristics—such as intensity, timing, and duration—on biological recovery and economic outcomes remain understudied. This study develops a bioeconomic model of the Delaware Bay blue crab fishery, integrating temperature-dependent population dynamics with fisher behavior to simulate the effects of short-term warming. Results show that summer warming above 6°C drives high mortality and slows stock recovery, while winter warming can accelerate growth and harvest. Policy simulations reveal trade-offs: full closures improve recovery but reduce profits, while size-based regulations maintain economic viability with smaller biological gains. These findings highlight the importance of timing in shaping climate responses and the need for adaptive, temperature-informed fishery management.