Timely policy responses can save fisheries from (some) temperature shocks (in review)

Marine heat extremes are intensifying globally, challenging fishery management systems designed around stable conditions. While biological effects of warming are well-documented, less is understood about when and how policy interventions can accelerate ecological recovery while minimizing economic losses. We develop a temperature-dependent bioeconomic framework that identifies thresholds and quantifies trade-offs between recovery and cost across more than 11,000 simulated warming and policy scenarios. Results reveal a critical `window of intervention’ where policies effectively accelerate recovery, but beyond which ecological damage outweighs policy benefits. Within this window, protecting reproductive capacity through targeted harvest restrictions consistently outperforms broader closures while minimizing economic costs. The framework offers a systematic approach for designing adaptive, climate-ready management strategies that balance biological recovery with economic sustainability across temperature-sensitive systems.